Andrew Gould Keynotes at Lehman Brothers Conference Fri, Sep 05, 2008
Increasing Production and Reserves
Ladies and gentlemen sensible afternoon—it's a pleasure to be in ny and i would wish to give thanks Jim Crandell for his invite. i am planning to use my time to provide|to administer|to allow|to convey|to grant|to relinquish} you our read of the business these days and present a number of the obstacles and opportunities that we have a tendency to believe square measure essential for future growth in oil and gas production. i will be able to additionally describe why I stay assured that Schlumberger is ideally positioned to profit from the imperative ought to increase production and reserves.
Five years agone, I used this slide to summarize oil provide and demand. As you'll be able to see, that demand was expected to grow by eleven mb/d to eighty eight mb/d by 2010 with thrice the maximum amount production being required to offset the decline in mature field output—assuming after all a moderate rate of decline.
Over the seven years from 2002, OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) demand growth is anticipated to be basically zero, nonetheless the eighty eight mb/d forecast can still be met in spite of a multiplication of the oil worth attributable to quicker than projected non-OECD demand growth. This surprising strength in non-OECD demand is well illustrated by the actual fact that 2007 non-OECD demand surpassed the 2002 forecast for 2010 by one mb/d.
Up heretofore it's a incontrovertible fact that moderation, and even some reduction, of demand within the OECD economies has for the most part been offset by growth within the developing world although the spike in oil costs earlier this year place even demand from the developing world underneath threat and that we saw many countries cut back fuel subsidies to effectively curb demand.
We have thus seen some restricted demand curtailment as a results of each high costs and reduced economic activity within the OECD countries. At this stage it's tough to grasp if this can be demand destruction—meaning a permanent modification in energy usage habits which will for good take away demand—or a short lived modification in shopping for patterns which will revert once costs moderate. within the developing world some reduction within the rate of demand growth can occur however it's unlikely to scale back to zero.
We contend that even in a very reduced demand growth scenario—let's say a hundred and twenty fifth per annum—the provide drawback remains basically a similar and a way deeper call in demand would be necessary to materially impact exploration and production activity. let's say the issue we have a tendency to face, this chart tracks ordered International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts of non-OPEC production—production that produces up nearly hr of today's provide. whereas changes have occurred in world organisation membership, not one forecast has met expectations and there's no reason for this to alter given the totally mature nature of this production. Further, we have a tendency to believe that non-OPEC provide has entered a highland additional seemingly to visualize stabilization instead of any increase in production.
If we glance currently at wherever provide can return from within the future, there square measure many factors that have an effect on the industry's speed and talent to retort.
First, heightened resource nationalism round the world has restricted investment opportunities for personal international capital significantly in areas wherever fast progressive gains in production would be doable. This doesn't mean that gains won't occur, however it will mean that they're going to take longer than if access had been additional open. additionally, politics and security problems have either hampered efforts to take care of production in some areas, or have prevented development of latest production in others.
This is having a basic result on the field industry as additional and additional exploration and development work is being undertaken directly by the national oil corporations. With the bulk of the known organic compound reserves lying within the Mideast, Central Asia and Russia, the business can ought to add new geologic and geographical environments. additionally, governments square measure increasing their tax take and changes in upstream financial regimes inevitably impact our customers' investment selections. we've seen governments in each the developing and developed world assume that prime oil costs mean they will tax with exemption. The result's lower or slower investment.
Second, the issue of delivery new non-OPEC production on line and on time has hyperbolic. The 2010 non-OPEC production forecast printed within the IEA medium-term oil market report in 2006 was fifty three mb/d, excluding Republic of Angola and South American country. One year later, that forecast had slipped to underneath fifty one.5 million, and within the most up-to-date report discharged last month it stood at fifty.6 mb/d semiconductor diode by declines in mature areas like the North Sea and United Mexican States.
One of the most reasons for this continued disappointment is that the issue in stemming decline in mature fields. whereas new wells onto land have typically relieved the matter, the supplying of offshore operations build a fast increase in drilling intensity tougher nonetheless will increase become necessary as offshore fields like the North Sea mature.
The Daqing Field in China as an example is one amongst the world's largest manufacturing land fields with production around one million bpd. In spite of ten,000 new wells being trained over the past few years, production has fallen by over 100 percent.
Oman provides another example wherever a doubling of rig count has not nonetheless been spare to try to to over slow the decline. In response, new technologies square measure being sky-high embraced to help with stemming the decline.
While natural factors have an effect on decline rates, these also are heavily plagued by the quantity of resources and degree of investment applied. in a very market wherever operators are devoting scarce human, technical and instrumentality resources to new comes, I contend that spare efforts have nonetheless to be applied to stemming decline.
Third, the efforts of the business to extend investment haven't solely semiconductor diode to shortages however additionally to high value inflation. IEA knowledge show that though investment has dramatically hyperbolic, abundant of that increase is attributable to value inflation and to not activity. as an example, the value of high-carbon stainless-steel has over doubled over the past 3 years, whereas the value of cementing and stimulation raw materials has grownup by [*fr1]. we have a tendency to also are experiencing physical shortages from time to time that are literally curtailing investment. At a similar time personnel prices have hyperbolic by the maximum amount as a 3rd in some areas.
Fourth, lower exploration disbursement, partially as a results of the restricted domain accessible, has not helped the reserve replacement magnitude relation of our customers. The estimate shown here—based on the twenty-five prime non-public international oil companies—clearly shows the declining trend in exploration disbursement over the past ten to twelve years though recent knowledge show some reversal of this trend that's mirrored in growing activity among the industry. whereas the national oil corporations square measure excluded from this study, a recent report by Energy Intelligence shows stagnation in overall reserves among the principal manufacturing countries though their national corporations square measure being more and more active in exploration because the recent series of discoveries offshore Brazil attests.
Finally, the foremost important shortage is that the lack of old professionals in virtually each a part of the business. Years of underinvestment in new talent have semiconductor diode to a restricted and ageing pool of masterly employees. Their replacement can't be done nightlong, and whereas the business has begun to rent once more in significant amount, it takes time to coach the big numbers of latest recruits. there's very little doubt that the shortage of engineering talent is that the single largest issue that stops our customers from finance additional.
As for gas, IEA knowledge show demand rising at a median annual rate of two.6% over the amount from 2005 to 2015 and so deceleration somewhat thenceforth. accumulative investment of $4.2 trillion are going to be needed to grow provide to the amount required to fulfill this demand from a pair of006 through 2030, with demand growth being quickest within the developing economies. however it's in North America that capital prices square measure highest wherever disbursement fluctuates dramatically in response to domestic worth pressures.
Technology and method has done abundant to unlock North yank non-conventional gas resources and can still do thus. we have a tendency to think about that prime levels of drilling activity can stay necessary with hyperbolic technology content. specifically, the shift to horizontal wells is changing into additional marked as a way to boost reservoir contact and so initial production rates.
Earlier this year, the outlook for North yank gas activity improved as lower winter-exit storage levels, declining Canadian production and lower LNG imports helped firm costs. we have a tendency to square measure seeing additional active drilling in North American nation and hyperbolic activity within the lower forty eight with recent worth weakness unlikely to have an effect on activity for the rest of 2008.
Internationally, the gas image has modified way more dramatically. there's a growing consciousness of the opposite OECD countries increasing dependence on foreign gas, either by pipe, basically from Russia or within the kind of LNG. This has semiconductor diode to AN hyperbolic need to diversify the supply of provide and there's significant speculation that project delays and postponements might cause material shortages within the half of ensuing decade.
These inherent fragilities within the oil and gas provide chain mean that the response to make adequate new provides goes to require for much longer than originally anticipated with variety of constraints deceleration enlargement. Lack of access, lack of resources, unsure financial terms, project delays and new instrumentality delays square measure all hampering the provision response. Current levels of activity square measure failing to adequately stem decline rates, significantly offshore wherever intervention and new drilling is tougher and dear. In mature land operations, drilling can ought to increase to take care of production in areas like Russia and United Mexican States. And whereas a replacement exploration cycle has begun, solely the unstable section is clearly underneath method as drilling is proscribed by the delivery of the new rigs needed—particularly in deepwater areas.
Clearly, a significant worldwide recession proscribing demand might cause a brief term contraction within the cycle, however the underlying condition of the assembly base implies that such a contraction would be terribly short lived.
Within this context, the challenges presently facing the industry give opportunities for Schlumberger to grow.
The first of those is that the trend towards exploration that we have a tendency to believe can still accelerate. The political economy of sustained higher oil costs square measure creating exploration comes that might have appeared not possible solely 3 years agone terribly enticing. this can have an effect on the kinds of technology needed also because the overall uptake of technology. Exploration activities square measure additional service intense than those used for development and among these, advanced geology imaging technologies that facilitate cut back uncertainty and mitigate technical risk in advanced geologies—such as below salt—are changing into essential.
Second, technology is needed to boost the performance of the prevailing production base wherever seventieth of fields are manufacturing for over thirty five years. Combating decline is crucial to the present and technology intensity can solely accelerate. we have a tendency to see the requirement for accelerated drilling and well construction wherever hyperbolic reservoir contact through integration of completion and stimulation technologies brings important benefits.
Third, there'll be a growing shift to additional unconventional organic compound resources. The bigger service intensity needed to provide unconventional gas in North America is simply one example of this challenge. The move to heavier drilling in North American nation and South American country is another. additionally, extreme conditions of temperature and pressure also as increasing toxicity of crudes and gases all build new developments tougher.
Lastly the business can still struggle with the shortage of trained professionals. As a result, systems for more practical use of the core of specialists that exists can become additional and additional rife. whereas this can begin with their recruiting and initial coaching, it'll ought to continue in such how that the new work force is brought chop-chop to levels of ability that let autonomous decision-making before before.
I don't shall discuss all of those points intimately. however i'd wish to pay it slow on however the exploration and production market is developing and why i feel it offers important potential for growth on the far side the tip of this decade.
The compound annual figures shown here square measure taken from the 2008 Spears field Market report and track growth in overlapping three-year periods from 2001 to 2007. They make sure that line|line of merchandise|business line|line of business|merchandise|wares|product} growth has been heavily biased towards products and services like pressure pumping and artificial raise. however they additionally show that growth has recently accelerated within the 2004-2007 timeframe for merchandise and services connected to new exploration and development. geology services, directional drilling, logging-while-drilling, wireline work in conjunction with production testing square measure all seemingly to expertise higher than average growth rates as new exploration activities develop.
Schlumberger has AN desirable position in these markets. within the last 3 years we've created and square measure continued to form major technology introductions in geology services with Q* marine and land unstable systems, in directional drilling and logging-while-drilling with the PowerDrive* and Scope* families of services, and in Wireline with Scanner* technologies. we have a tendency to also are introducing important new merchandise and services in pressure pumping and completions with the Contact* family of stimulation technologies. Another technology that has seen important new developments is that of petrotechnical software package with the Petrel* integrated model-based seismic-to-simulation suite.
Indeed the expansion of Schlumberger alphabetic character unstable may be a model of however a technology has been driven by the upsurge in exploration activity through the worth it brings to the characterization of adverse exploration prospects. alphabetic character has penetrated most of the organic compound basins within the world and new markets square measure gap in frontier environments within the Arctic, the Gulf of city and geographic area also as in AK, Siberia, Venezuela, Argentina, Asian country and China.
As we've gained additional expertise with alphabetic character, we've additionally been developing additional advanced applications that enjoy the standard of the information. These embrace the made and wide angle surveys that increase illumination of potential reservoirs below salt and basalt—two minerals consistently rife in several of the world's exploration areas.
Such surveys square measure extremely advanced and expensive—requiring additional boats and longer whereas generating the maximum amount as sixfold additional knowledge than normal work. alphabetic character technology is succeeding here not solely owing to its bigger fidelity, however additionally as a result of its dirigible streamer capability permits bigger potency. The introduction of dynamic management steering technology adds more accuracy by steering the vessel, the streamers and therefore the supply mechanically and is unmatched within the business for its capability to amass angle knowledge with efficiency.
In response, we have a tendency to nonheritable jap Echo last Nov with 2 convictions in mind—first, that exploration are going to be a significant driver of the cycle going forward, and second, that we are going to still considerably differentiate ourselves all told aspects of geophysical science. The six new superior vessels can all be equipped with Q-generation technology and their hyperbolic potency can impact the speed and complexness of future operations. this can offer WesternGeco significant flexibility in matching capability to demand as vessel-intensive operations grow.
At a similar time we have a tendency to additionally expect integration of unstable with alternative knowledge to accelerate. Our acquisitions of TerraTek, Ødegaard and Geosystem plus our own analysis and development efforts square measure adding capability within the complete seismic-to-simulation chain. Of explicit interest is that the rising technology of deep magnetism imaging supported magneto-telluric and controlled supply measurements.
To give you AN example of what this will bring, think about this instance from the deep Gulf of United Mexican States. The unstable image shown here depicts 2 key challenges in salt-prone environments that have an effect on all aspects of finding and manufacturing hydrocarbons among such areas—namely, wherever is that the base of the salt, and wherever is that the reservoir?
Look currently at this integrated plot wherever unstable, magnetism and gravity knowledge are combined. the mix of those numerous measurements has reduced uncertainity and that we will currently see the reservoir at a lower place the salt—which is shown in orange. Drilling selections based mostly solely on the unstable knowledge would lack this information with ensuant technical risk. whereas it's still time period for this kind of labor, we have a tendency to square measure assured that integrated results can bring important price to reservoir characterization.
These new technologies also are having an impression on multi-client survey acquisition and usage. The new angle knowledge sets square measure significantly additional expensive than ancient slender angle multi-client knowledge, and as a result customers square measure reluctant to arrange to major purchases till they understand what success they need had in any lease sales. this can be leading to a shift in multi-client revenues aloof from ancient patterns of will increase before lease sales to will increase within the quarters following the sales. this can be a very important reality to recollect in 2008 once the main Gulf-of-Mexico lease sale solely occurred at the tip of the primary quarter.
In support of our technology objectives to fulfill client needs, we have a tendency to square measure continued to specialise in analysis and engineering. we have a tendency to hyperbolic our R&E expenditure by eighteen in 2007 and that we can increase once more in 2008. With the move of Schlumberger-Doll analysis to Boston, Massachusetts, the gap of our Carbonate centre in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia and therefore the enlargement of Schlumberger Moscow analysis to city, we've currently placed analysis facilities in key educational centers worldwide. we've additionally opened a network of Regional Technology Centers golf shot scientists and engineers in proximity to major customers and their operations with centers already open in Kuala Lumpur, Abu Dhabi, Stavanger, Dallas, capital of Mexico, provincial capital and Puerto La Cruz in South American country.
If I impose the regional facet of our technology infrastructure, it's as a result of serving our customers these days implies a worldwide footprint with the flexibility to grow infrastructure where it's required. whereas Schlumberger has continually had a powerful technology presence within the orient, growth over the last 3 years has meant we've expanded our network at a way additional fast rate. And additionally to the locations I simply mentioned, we've additionally designed new or extended producing facilities in Russia, in China, Singapore, the united kingdom and therefore the USA.
We have additionally been consistently extending our in operation locations within the field. within the last 3 years we've revived or intercalary facilities in African nation, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Mexico, Ecuador, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Russia. several square measure business to the growing activity in exploration also because the in progress development of deep reservoirs. but the best challenge has been within the hiring and coaching of latest professionals.
For almost forty years we've had a policy of hiring professionals from the areas during which we have a tendency to work. This history has allowed North American nation to retort smartly to the requirement to expand the work force. From 2004 to 2007 we have a tendency to recruited over thirteen,000 technical employees with university ANd faculty degrees or diplomas out of an overall count increase of roughly eighteen,000. within the last 2 years, in answer to the extraordinary explosion of activity, we have a tendency to recruited over vi,000 engineers from over two hundred universities in eighty countries.
To address this load, engineer and specialist coaching days have over doubled since 2004, and that we have opened new coaching centers in France and United Arab Emirates's capital and in Tyumen in Western geographic area, which can meet all our desires in Russia and therefore the Russian speaking republics. it's a complete capability of a hundred and sixty students covering Artificial raise, Drilling & Measurements, IPM, Schlumberger info Solutions and Well Services activities.
The last space wherever we've created significant investment over the previous few years is in Integrated Project Management—an activity that we have a tendency to began over ten years agone. IPM is especially relevant in today's market because the business responds to AN increasing ought to drill against a background of restricted human resources. Today, IPM operates fifty five well construction and field management comes, runs over a hundred rigs, employs over vi,000 people, and manages production just like that of a moderately sized freelance.
Revenue has hyperbolic multiple since 1999 and therefore the rate of growth is presently fast. we have a tendency to generate revenue in four ways in which. the primary is thru project management wherever Schlumberger brings work flow processes, risk management and field operations capability. The second is rig management, wherever we have a tendency to operate either our own rigs, like those in Russia or operated through our venture within the Mideast, or those in hand or chartered directly by our customers. The third revenue stream comes from readying of Schlumberger technologies that provide the prospect of risk and reward evaluation. The fourth class, that is commonly the foremost misunderstood, includes third-party revenues for the services that we have a tendency to don't give directly. it's vital to grasp that the IPM revenues vary in their composition over the lifetime of the project as new phases begin, and extra rigs and instrumentality square measure mobilized.
IPM may be a GeoMarket-based service wherever client desires and Schlumberger capabilities converge. IPM operations square measure increasing in GeoMarkets in each geographic area and Europe/CIS/Africa wherever Russia became the quickest growing region for IPM in 2007. within the last eighteen months, IPM has mobilized thirty three drilling rigs on new comes several of that square measure in square measureas wherever depths are bigger, temperatures hotter, or operations additional remote and consequently mobilisation prices square measure bigger. we have a tendency to anticipate that a minimum of another sixteen rigs are going to be mobilized on numerous comes between currently and therefore the finish of 2008.
But because the IPM business grows, thus will the potential of the organization. Success lies in capturing and investing best operational practices from project to project and region to region. In United Mexican States as an example, in operation time per well fell by seventieth as expertise hyperbolic and supply capability grew over the varied phases of the Burgos project. we have a tendency to expect to visualize similar gains in our new operations in additional tough environments.
At the tip of the second quarter of this year, IPM international backlog through 2010 had grownup to $5.3 billion. The industry's ought to stem decline through hyperbolic drilling intensity plays to the strengths of IPM through managing economical well construction campaigns whereas applying technology to boost recovery from each new and existing wells. i'm totally convinced that we have a tendency to currently have a well-managed project management business which will be a significant growth engine for Schlumberger.
Ladies and Gentlemen, instead of continuation the expansion targets that we have a tendency to iterated over the last 2 years, i'd currently wish to summarize what I actually have aforesaid these days. it's our competition, during which we've already heavily invested with, that this cycle are going to be "Stronger for Longer". I actually have after all to repeat the caveat that a severe international recession resulting in a significant call in demand would materially have an effect on this state of affairs.
Our conviction stems from the assumption that current investment levels square measure lean to each stem decline and to explore and develop new reserves. a part of the investment delay is attributable to political and financial uncertainties, half to a unbroken lack of resources each in terms of individuals and instrumentality. I actually have printed in some detail the obstacles—now let Maine define the positives for the cycle going forward.
First, there's AN interest in new exploration all told components of the business on a scale not seen for thirty years. I illustrated this through the success of WesternGeco unstable technology and our commitment to its future through enlargement of our marine fleet with the acquisition of jap Echo. I might have additionally mentioned the impact of the unprecedented enlargement of the drilling platform fleet wherever 102 of the 182 rigs presently underneath construction have deepwater capability. The importance is that hyperbolic exploration drilling places a premium on Schlumberger technologies that improve performance whereas reducing risk. Over the last 2 years, we've developed and deployed several new Drilling & Measurements, Wireline and Testing technologies which will considerably impact our customers' ability to drill, assess and check deepwater reservoirs.
Second, the business can ought to drill additional. the delicate balance of gas provide within the lower forty eight is maybe the most effective example of this. Following the dramatic decline in shelf-gas provide, the business has had to extend drilling for lower-quality gas resources to levels ne'er seen before to make amends for Gulf of United Mexican States production losses. it's been a method and technology success that has inspired the gap of more sedimentary rock gas plays.
Increasingly we are going to ought to make amends for production decline in mature areas worldwide through hyperbolic drilling activity. this can be already the case in United Mexican States and Western geographic area, and whereas I showed examples from China and Oman, I might have bestowed several others. This ought to drill confirms the scale of the chance for IPM, and that we have seen and square measure seeing, AN unprecedented demand for this service also as for alternative technologies that impact recovery rates.
Finally, all this can not be doable while not economical and price effective international infrastructure, a extremely trained and motivated work force, and therefore the technology to extend recovery factors and keep prices under control. All this plays to Schlumberger's core strengths and explains my belief that the cycle can stay stronger for extended.
While this can be basic to the long run of the corporate, i'm positive investors square measure equally interested in the outlook for the rest of 2008. I started the year by line of work 2008 a year of transition. i used to be afraid that project delays, the unsure direction people gas, and therefore the modification in pattern of multi-client sales in conjunction with the large build in IPM comes would build our growth uneven. In fact, the strength in North yank gas activity and therefore the acceleration in production declines in many countries round the world on the rear of terribly high artefact costs have semiconductor diode to a pattern of fast growth because the year progresses. This acceleration solely reinforces the long-run chance.
It solely remains for North American nation to execute to be ready to still turn out exceptional money results.
Thank you much.
Source: Schlumberger
